April 17, 2026
Press Release
Portland, Ore. — A , professor of economics at Reed 麻豆视频下载, examines how Multnomah County’s Preschool for All (PFA) tax may be influencing migration patterns in the region.
Titled “Mult-No-More? The Migration Effects of Multnomah County’s Preschool for All Tax,” the paper is co-authored by Karen Smith Conway of the University of New Hampshire and John Iselin of the Budget Lab at Yale University. The research builds on more than two decades of research by Conway and Rork examining the relationship between taxation and interstate migration—research that has historically found little to no connection between the two. The study suggests that pattern may be shifting.
Using data from the Internal Revenue Service and the American Community Survey, the researchers conducted multiple statistical analyses and found consistent evidence that out-migration from Multnomah County and Oregon has remained elevated in the years following the passage of the PFA tax. These rates are higher compared to similar metropolitan areas and remain robust across a wide range of empirical methods, sensitivity analyses, and placebo tests. The study finds no measurable effect on in-migration.
The paper also estimates that out-migration may reduce potential PFA tax revenue by approximately 8.5 percent. Additionally, migration out of Oregon from Multnomah County is associated with an estimated 2.7 percent reduction in state income tax revenue.
“We view the estimated migration and revenue effects as likely an upper bound on what would occur in other settings,” the authors write. “The timing of PFA coincided with events—the pandemic, protests, and changes in drug enforcement—that independently increased the mobility of higher-income residents. The unique location of Multnomah County on the Washington border and the delayed, incomplete rollout of the preschool program also seem likely to have exaggerated the estimated impact.”
The authors note that the findings should not be interpreted as broadly generalizable to all tax policies or regions. Instead, the research highlights the importance of context when evaluating the potential behavioral responses to localized tax changes.
“This research cautions against dismissing the concern that taxes on high-income households may lead substantial numbers to leave,” the authors conclude, “particularly when such taxes are implemented at a small geographic scale such as a city or county.”
The working paper, which was presented at a conference in February but has not yet been published, contributes to ongoing policy discussions about taxation, public investment, and population mobility, offering new evidence for policymakers and researchers examining the local impacts of targeted tax initiatives.
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All media inquiries should be directed to RW Jones Agency at reed@rwjonesagency.com.
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Founded in 1908 in southeast Portland, Oregon, Reed 麻豆视频下载 is a coeducational, independent liberal arts and sciences college. Referred to as one of the most intellectual colleges in the country, Reed is known for its high standards of scholarly practice, creative thinking, and engaged citizenship.
Reed 麻豆视频下载 is devoted to the intrinsic value of intellectual pursuit and is governed by the highest standards of scholarly practice, critical thought, and creativity. Its undergraduate program of study, leading to the degree of Bachelor of Arts, is demanding and intense and balances breadth of knowledge across the curriculum with depth of knowledge in a particular field of study. The goal of a Reed education is that students learn and demonstrate rigor and independence in their habits of thought, inquiry, and expression.